Getting Paid 24% Per Year Selling Insurance On Bitcoin.
My latest trade + Portfolio update.
Welcome to the ROI club.
One of my two ‘grandparent’ investment themes for positioning my investments for a prolonged cycle of higher and more volatile inflation is an expected, prolonged and deliberate debasement of fiat currencies globally.
The main driving factor for this posturing revolves around unserviceable government debt and deficits – most egregiously in the USA which serves as the world’s reserve currency.
The other is the underinvestment in energy and materials production where decades of capital starvation have led to supply constraints, precisely at the point of a demand shock.
Remember rising energy costs show up in the price of everything and the increase price of true money instruments like gold and bitcoin is the price of everything.
Today’s piece takes a look at why 2025 is a pivotal year in this thesis, focusing on the amount of US federal debt that needs to be rolled over. Premium members also get access to my take on an extremely attractive trade involving gold and bitcoin, where I believe there’s a good chance I actually get paid to buy both assets given the way I’ve structured it.
This will be my last piece in the debasement theme for a while before moving on to why I’m long energy CAPEX.
US FEDERAL DEBT WALL
The dot-point version is that next few years look something like this:
Near-Term Maturities
About 52% of the debt will mature by early 2026.
Roughly 66% of the debt will mature by early 2028.
This paper was issued at roughly half the current interest rate which we’re seeing today (2.5% then Vs 4.5% now) meaning interests costs will be double what they were.
The estimates I’m looking at show interest expense reaching 30% of tax receipts (the government’s income) in 2025.
This reinforces why I’ve been so focused on stacking gold recently with capital I need to keep liquid for a rainy day. Now to the BTC trade..
It took me a while to come around, but the world’s first non de-baseable and non confiscable money is BTC.
BTC adoption continues to grow at an outstanding rate. Since the ETF was approved Jan 2024 $133 billion already sits in ETFs globally in their aggregate and we now have a derivatives market - which means I have the opportunity to profit by selling insurance on it.
I have structured an extremely low risk trade whereby I am being paid a 24% annualised yield to buy an asset I love and take advantage of the aforementioned inflation-inducing disaster that’s about to get much worse than most people think.
Here it is..
