Market Tops? Preparing for the Next Accumulation Window
Mastering the Market Cycle In Crypto.
My good friend the BowTiedMara has often explained the virtues and potential of Bitcoin to me over the last 3-4 years and whilst I was slow on the uptake, I started paying much more attention to it in 2024 as the asymmetric nature of the trade in success Vs failure mode is too great to ignore.
It was in April of 2024 while I was Mavericking around remote northern Argentina that I had a chance encounter with a Canadian financial planner.
I was having a blast and posted the below photo on X.
Next thing I know I receive a DM from an anonymous account on X saying that he and his wife had a place in Cafayate and since I was coming through I should stay with them in their Villa.
True to my track record of accepting random invitations without a moment’s consideration as to potential downside consequences in 3rd world places I accepted immediately. (I have to say this attitude has always worked out very well for me however caution is advisable as individual results may vary).
While I was there I was interested to learn that this fellow and his wife had sold their interests in Canada a few years ago and rolled almost all of it into Bitcoin during the ‘crypto winter’. Bitcoin was ~$60K at the time we were chatting and he told me something interesting:
”You’re not too late - soon financial planners will be advising a small weighting of their clients’ funds and the market cap will sky rocket”
It was then when I began to think my pittance of an allocation to bitcoin could use some bulking.
Today, with Bitcoin hovering around $100K it appears there was something to what he said. Furthermore, we had this announcement earlier in the month:
Bitcoin’s long-term thesis is straightforward:
If it captures even a small slice of global capital flows, the upside is asymmetric in a way few assets can match.
Why?
Because it’s going after the largest market in the world - the money market.
Part of my Bitcoin allocation will be dollar cost averaging, part will be strategically acquiring at opportune times. This is the focus of today’s article.
Bitcoin is a cyclical asset, with sharp expansions followed by brutal drawdowns. These cycles aren’t a bug—they’re the feature that gives patient, strategic investors the chance to accumulate at much lower average costs.
The game isn’t just buy and hold no matter what. It’s buy with timing in nature with the cycle.
The Cycle Roadmap
One of the books I’m reading this year is ‘The 4th Turning’. A stand out theme of the book is that of cyclicality and how in modern times we’ve relegated our understanding of time to be almost exclusively linear, rather than circular which, incidentally, is a key theme in classic literature such as the works of Jorge Luis Borges and Gabriel Garcia Marquez.
Therefore when I happened to hear Mike Terpin talking about Bitcoin in terms of its seasonal cyclicality, the overlapping concepts immediately clicked.
If you understand the cycle you can deploy the appropriate capital allocation (or reduction) tactic with the goal of accumulating more of the asset at a lower cost base over time.
The way I see it, we need to understand two key cycles interacting here:
Bitcoin’s halving cycle
Human behavioural cycle in buying
Using historical halving patterns, likely fund flows and Terpin’s “Bitcoin Seasons” framework, here’s how I’m mapping the road ahead:
This isn’t prediction for prediction’s sake—it’s about knowing where patience pays.
That time I believe is now, with BTC having gone on a epic run and overall market sentiment seeming frothy to me.
I’m not in the business of chasing tops. My plan is to:
Ride Summer – participate in upside but take profits into parabolic moves. I think we’re getting close here.
Autumn: Scale out -avoid the majority of the 70–80% drawdowns that crush passive holders.
Ready Capital In Winter – let the market do its brutal work and start scaling in aggressively when sentiment seems most gloomy.
Accumulate during Spring – quietly, when headlines are elsewhere. That likely means waiting patiently until late 2027.
This strategy isn’t about perfection—it’s about stacking exposure while avoiding emotional overbuying at the wrong time.
I’ll be watching the next Winter → Spring window like a hawk. If history rhymes, it may be one of the last chances to meaningfully increase BTC exposure before its market cap begins to compete with the likes of gold, bonds, and even slices of global real estate.
When trillions start to trickle into an asset with a fixed 21 million supply, the math stops being subtle.
For an overview as to my ultimate plan for Bitcoin’s potential valuation see my piece here:
In other news - this trade I made in February is already up 55% and hence I’m closing it in anticipation of the BTC cycle mentioned above.
This was the closest thing to free money - for which I’m grateful.
Until next time - All the best and due your own due diligence.
Benjamin
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Disclaimer: This publication is intended solely for documenting my personal journey with trading and investments for income and travel purposes. I am not a certified financial advisor nor am I a financial professional and none of the content provided should be construed as investment advice. It is essential to conduct your own thorough research and consult a registered financial service provider for appropriate guidance. I cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented. Any actions taken based on the information shared in any of my work are done at your own risk and discretion.
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