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Do I buy now, or wait?
Such a common question. One which is not limited to Bitcoin (BTC) exclusively, but is frequently associated with it given its famous volatility.
In August of 2025 I outlined my expectations for BTC’s likely price range based on: its prior cycles, mining economics ahead of the 2028 halving include estimates of mining equipment and electricity costs as well as using power law regressions.
TLDR: My price range for BTC in 2026 was $40-$70K which was hit June 1 when it broke below $70,000. Post-halving (April 2028) I have updated my targets to a low of $117,000 and a base case of $270,000.
I earmarked the October-November period as when I considered the final flush-out most likely to occur and of course I’m writing this in September.
So, to return to the question at the beginning?
Do I buy now — or wait?
My time in markets has taught me that no amount of cleverness can make up for patience and a solid framework and therefore I’m doing both.
I’ll explain.
In Crassus Investments I currently hold 10% exposure to BTC (5% in BTC itself and 5% via MSTR). In The Royalty King portfolio I hold 15%, that consists of CMSG and WELX.
In the event that BTC drops <$60,000 I am willing to double my exposure to these investments as these two portfolios are designed for long term growth.
Ergo, I’m buying and I’m also waiting.
The logic for positioning, even partially, now rather than later is simple:
Bitcoin at time of writing is $77,135, so if I assume my targets are accurate and use them as a working axiom the risk:reward stands thus:
Upside to $270,000: +250.0%
Downside to $60,000: −22.2%
When viewed in current portfolio terms:
Crassus Investments (10% BTC weight)
Downside: 10% × −22.2% = −2.2% portfolio drag
Upside: 10% × +250% = +25.0% portfolio gain
TRK (15% BTC weight)
Downside: 15% × −22.2% = −3.3% portfolio drag
Upside: 15% × +250% = +37.5% portfolio gain
The actual move will vary given the treasury companies have different beta to BTC
So, sitting tight is a perfectly reasonable option for someone with conviction in the thesis.
Yet with geopolitics being what they are, sustained liquidity injections into markets become more and more necessary so I want more exposure to BTC as it is the most liquidity - responsive asset there is. Let’s assume BTC drops to $60K and I double my position. What might that look like?
Blended cost basis = $67,499 (weighted by equal dollar amounts at $77,135 and $60,000)
Revised upside to $270,000: +300.0% (up from +250%, since cost basis is lower)
Portfolio weight: Crassus BTC exposure moves to 20% invested, TRK BTC exposure to 30% invested.
From a portfolio perspective the upside is now:
Crassus: 20% × 300% = +60.0%
TRK: 30% × 300% = +90.0%
Of course, BTC could fall further and should BTC continue dropping to, say $50K, the portfolios would be marked down as:
Crassus (20% weight): 20% × −25.9% = −5.2%
TRK (30% weight): 30% × −25.9% = −7.8%.
Still the overall reward to risk is 11-12:1 assume my 2028 target holds.
With gold royalties consisting more than a third of exposure for both portfolios and IMHO a highly likely double or more, from here, I can afford BTC to go to zero (though I don’t expect that) and have the losses offset by the more tried and true asset in gold royalties.
From my perspective, this is a logical move. The entry price will be volatility and likely looking silly for a given period of time. A comfort for the uneasiness felt when BTC is exhibiting its signature volatility might be found in considering its main competitor: the US dollar, which is less volatile, but loses 7-8% of its purchasing power every year historically and likely more now given the debt levels.
It’s worth clarifying that the gold/bitcoin/hard asset story is really a bond story which is really a debt story which in turn is really a serviceability story. When the world’s pre-eminent fiat currency, with unlimited supply constraints faces off against the world’s first engineered money with immutable supply cap, the specious units can only flow in one direction by simple mechanics.
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Until next time,
Eyes to where the ball is going in 2028.
Benjamin
