Stop Touching Your Portfolio |Crown Compendium IX
Position Updates, Exotic Trades, and the Math Behind a Comfortable Retirement
An informal dispatch on markets, money and my musings. For those who want to go deeper, the links are at the bottom.
Don’t forget to grab your ticket to the Rule Symposium below.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it".
— Albert Eistein
It’s a good time for us to detach from the news noise cycle and contemplate the big picture asking what it is we’re really trying to achieve. If you’re like me, and grew up from humble beginnings, you probably have a tendency to be impatient and ‘push’ towards outperformance, as somewhere in your unconscious you feel like you’re behind. For me this persisted into my late 20’s when, in fact, I was way ahead and simply lacked perspective.
It’s important to recognise that the biggest force in reliably building wealth/compounding an investment portfolio is time. Therefore, it’s worthwhile pondering that the greatest threat to achieving ‘the goal’ (whatever that is for you) is most likely to be any actions you take to interrupt the compounding.
I’ve been pondering the juxtaposition between the rewards that come with ‘seeking alpha’ vs its detrimental effects in the case of: mistakes, turnover & taxes etc.
I took the liberty of searching for the median net worth and retirement balances of 35 year olds (my age) in the USA.
Key Data for Age 35–44 Bracket:
Median Net Worth: Approx. $135,300 – $135,600.
Median Retirement Savings (401k/IRA): ~$45,000.
I then took the median net worth and compounded for 30 years using 15% as base case and 5% variance. This is a great tool to use
Lest the reader think that my chosen base case of 15% is unachievable for a non-professional, the below whitepaper shows how one would have gotten quite close by simply buying and holding a collection of global exchanges. Hardly a complicated strategy. An even simpler approach would have been to stack gold and forbid yourself from consuming news.
Why am I not mentioning indices?
Simply because they were outperformed by both exchanges and gold in what I believe will prove indexation’s ‘golden era’. On a forward-looking basis, I lean towards the view that the SPX is likely in for a ‘lost decade’ or two in real money (gold) terms, although it may track upwards-and-to-the-right in nominal terms.
As you may know by now I prefer to invest in quality derivatives of real money and tangible assets (Royalties, streamers and land owners) along with exchanges as the toll booth of all financial activity.
As Mike Howell is fond of saying “all money that’s anywhere must be somewhere”. And no matter where capital is flowing between sectors in the stock market, it’s by default on the exchange and the exchange is ‘clipping the ticket’.
Portfolios
Whilst I continue my protest against constant portfolio updates for my investments ( Machina Capitalis , in contradistinction, is an operating business) I know there can be some confusion as to the different books I run so here I’ve laid it out along with the respective annualised returns:
The Royalty King: A collection of Royalty & Streamers + select crypto miners) +20.33%
The Croupier Collection: Exchanges, Asset Managers & Select Private equity fund manager. +0.85% (4 months old and still in construction
Crassus Investments: All the above + special situations. +21%
Machina Capitalis, as mentioned, is an operating business involving short sales, options and exotic trades. Thus far it has returned +46% since its inception in Jan this year.
Reviewing Positions
Hawaiian Electric (HE) has quietly risen ~38% since I wrote this piece in August 2025. It’s a classic example of a case where understanding the equity yield curve concept and being able to look forward 2-3 years really pays off.
In the piece I outlined an opinion of why HE might reach $33+ in 2-3 years.
That’s still 100% upside from here and I am yet to see a reason to change my thesis. I remain happily long amidst the deafening silence of this most unusual opportunity to purchase a monopoly utility for cents on the dollar. (shh, don’t tell anyone).
Gold Royalty (GROY) holds a special place in my heart (and portfolio) given it practically 5x’d for me since I aggressively added to it during the yen-panic of 2024. My friend Don Durrett is insisting on underwriting $7000 gold for his investments over the next two years. I don’t disagree with the price but am less convinced as to timing. In my most recent piece on GROY I modelled out several price and production scenarios for GROY, one of which included $7k Gold. I felt slightly embarrassed underwriting such figures at the time but should they eventuate GROY may give me another 1-2x on invested capital from today’s price.
Exotic Trades
ICYMI It’s my birthday tomorrow so I decided to share an insight into Machina Capitalis plus an exotic trade with potential for up to 26x return.
It is non-paywalled and will remain so for the rest of the week to give you a taste.
Media
Check out my latest interview with Rob, The Contrarian Capitalist. I breakdown the most lucrative investment theme that almost everyone is ignoring.
That’s enough for this compendium.
I hope you’re well. I continue to hold nearly 50% in cash (includes gold bullion) and am deploying capital in dribs and drabs for the companies I know well which have inelastic demand, scarce-monopoly on supply and boast a capital light operating model.
Take Care.
Benjamin